Transgrancanaria: The Plan

My mindset going into my first race of the year

I want to win this race, and I think there’s definitely a chance I can.

Generally, I do a decent amount of planning out logistics and visualizing how the race might unfold before a key race that I care about. Transgrancanaria (TGC) is the most invested I’ve felt in a race since Western States last year and I’m excited to put everything to the test. It’s about 79 miles (126km) with around 22,000ft of vertical gain. I thought it could be kind of fun to have this publish right as the race starts, so any of the superfans who for some reason subscribe to my little Substack can get a glimpse into what might be going on in my head and compare it to reality. Maybe I’ll be spot on, maybe I’ll be way off, but I think going in with a strategy and adapting to the actual race conditions is better than going in blind.

Training for TGC went well. I’m really pleased with how I’ve felt the past couple of months and how my coaches at Evoke Endurance have managed the build for this race. I feel as fit or fitter than I did at any point last year, and it’s only February. This is the first period of training I’ve done where I haven’t made all my running public on Strava. I wanted to try it, just to see if knowing that people wouldn’t be able to see or analyze a workout or long run would affect how I ran. Now I can say I don’t think it does, but a side effect of the experiment was I started feeling like I’ve got a little secret up my sleeve because ~my opponents who are checking out my Strava~ could only imagine what I’ve been up to. Training volume was right around what’s become a normal level for me over the past year or two leading into big races, with a little more emphasis on vertical gain than mileage but really just doing everything by time. Most weeks this meant landing in the 15-20hr range across all activities. I was disciplined about the little things and feel stronger for it, happy to be getting to the start line healthy and dealing quickly with little issues that arose that could have paused training for a previous version of myself.

Now for some predictions… My best guess is that it will take a 13:10-13:20ish to win TGC this year, and the spreadsheet I gave Morgan for crewing has optimistic splits for 13:10. (I’m having to come back and edit this now after seeing the news that Tom Evans will not be racing) Jon Albon is who I see as my main competition, but you never know who else might go off in a deep international field like this. I passed Jon around mile 86 during Western States and finished about 15 minutes in front of him, but this is a very different race and when I was chatting with him last night he mentioned that he’s run more miles training for this race than for WSER, along with lots of ski touring, through the bitter Norwegian winter. Utah’s been cold too, but maybe the heat of TGC will end up helping me.

I don’t love race starts, and this race starting at 11:59pm will mean a new experience for me of racing through the night. Going from standing on the line to immediately spiking my heart rate getting in the lead pack off the gun and then holding that pace until it gets too hard is not my style. People will take it out hot, but not stupid fast. Jon will be basically at the front with a couple other top contenders, and I’ll be a minute or so back trying to keep them in sight through the first couple aid stations. I was hoping that Jon and Tom would be basically just thinking about each other as their primary threats and that I could quietly sit back and watch them cook each other, but having Tom out of the race will significantly change up the dynamics. Jon might be able to chill a lot more without someone pressing him early and I’ll need to feel out if I want to step into that role and try to push a bit or not.

When the sun comes up, I’ll be through the Artenara crew point, in the lead pack, having gone over 41.5 miles and gained over 13,800ft. The highest aid station of the course, El Garañón (mile 54, nearly 20,000ft gained), should hopefully be around 10 hours into the race. I’m as strong as anyone on big final downhills, but from what I’m seen of the course so far, it’s sneaky tough. The long downhills are often just rocky enough to really have to focus and it will be hard for most people to get into a flow. A small gap will open over the next 24 miles to the finish. It’ll be tight, but I can pull off a win here on my best day.

Bonus prediction: I’ll be lounged out on the grass (or sand? not exactly sure what the finish area looks like) at the finish line, swapping stories with the Salt Lake crew, wishing I could eat but too nauseous to get anything down. At 2:40pm local time (14:41 on the race clock), Finn will come ripping through the plaza for a top 10 finish (8th? 9th?). I’m very sad that I also had to come back to this section and edit out a prediction about the Mike McMonagle vs Finn rivalry—we miss you Mike, wish you were here!

Wouldn’t that be fun if I totally called it though? Who knows what will really happen… actually I guess we all will know in 13-15ish hours unless things get real rough. Here’s a live tracker link if you want to follow the race. I believe there’s also a livestream here.